24 Dilemma (1/2)

Deducing the outcome of battle was an extremely intricate skill. Even computers would not be able to completely calculate all the possible results that might happen. Maybe, there would be some small incident that would change the entire outcome of the war. Using the same military power and deployment, the same situation, the same intelligence map, and the same system for deduction, different people of different skills would be able to attain a completely different deduction of what might happen.

Ever since the ancient era on Earth when sandbox simulations were invented, deduction became one of the methods that both nations fighting the war must have, as this determined the final battle plans. As the space era arrived, many different styles of deduction emerged. The reason for why so many different types of deduction appeared might be largely attributed to the emergence of space wars that were entirely different from the ancient era on Earth. The battle tactics and environment were some of the factors affecting it. Still, one thing still held true even since ancient times — one could not solely rely on deductions, as it would never be possible to calculate certain events that might happen on chance.

In order to resolve this conundrum, countless deduction professionals had thought of many different methods during wars. They used all sorts of methods to try and solve the problem of chance that could affect the entire outcome of the war. Several styles of deduction were fond of using micro-commanding to reduce the possibilities of chance events. These styles could carefully take into account aspects like the environment, weaponry, and time before giving a set of plans to proceed thereafter. However, the amount of calculation required for this was immense and the plans the soldiers had to follow were extremely complicated, thus this sort of deduction would usually be used on battles of the size of a regiment and smaller army groups. There were also some deduction styles that took into account the probability of chance events happening and how large of an effect it would bring to the final outcome of the battle. If the chance was low and the influence was small, then it would be ignored; however, if it was huge, then the entire battle plan would have to be changed. There were also several styles that ignored these chance events entirely. For them, they would depend on an enormous advantage and a well-prepared military force to resolve any chance events that might happen during battles. Ultimately, there would not be a battle plan that was entirely perfect and neither would a nation be able to hold onto their advantage over their enemies forever.

War could be considered a strategic board game between two or more opponents. It was also the reason for the continuation of a political regime. Not only did it influence the requirements for governance, it also affected international affairs, the population’s sentiments, the economy, technology, military powers, and many other different related fields, making it a truly complicated matter. More importantly, deduction was not a single-sided affair. When one’s side was conducting deduction and changing the military plans and deployment, the other side would similarly be doing the same thing and perhaps even do it better in view of better intelligence or skill.

If the deduction of the battle was not done right, then the military plans would not be well-planned as well. The outcome would just be like a chess game where your entire path was calculated by your opponent, reaching a situation known by many as “leading you along to be beaten”.

In military institutions, the module on deduction occupied a large percentage of the student’s final results. Those who had talent in deduction would often be recommended to join a high-ranking military command team as an intern. When they graduated, they would immediately be assigned to the unit where they interned at, becoming a renowned commanding officer or a staff officer who creates the entire battle plan.

There was never a single style nor a talent in deduction who would hold onto one’s chest and guarantee that his or her deduction was certainly accurate. An ignorant person knows no fear. Fatty, who was underground, could affirm his deduction was accurate. He knew that according to the statistics report and the deductions he simulated over a thousand times, he could determine the enemy’s movement with an accuracy of 99.75%. And against the enemy’s battle plans, movement, degree of offensive and defensive prowess, and their area of activity, Fatty could deduce them with an accuracy of about 90%.

This style of deduction that originated from the easterners of ancient Earth included not only the philosophy of Sun Tze’s Art of War but also included the classics of I Ching as well. Its calculation methods were unique and different from many others. As such, other than the fatty, there was practically no one who was interested towards this set of things. In the current era where technology was advanced, things that seemingly could not be touched, like reading fortune to deduce the outcome of a battle, was a joke to many. Fatty originally did not believe in it; however, after seeing how complex the system was and after fully understanding it, it would be a waste of his effort if he did not use it at least in deductions. The conclusion to more than a thousands time of repeated outcome deduction proved that this set of deduction methods was truly way better than many of today’s scientific deduction styles. Thus, this calculation that incorporated the world and basis of I Ching’s philosophy to deduce the outcome of a battle made Fatty fully enthusiastic.

This set of deduction methods even had a solution to the chance events that could not fully be comprehended. This strange method was enough to make Fatty slap the table and shower it with praise. In its philosophy of the treatment toward chance events, it could not entirely solve these events and neither could it resolve individual battle situations; instead, it would utilize all these different events and situations to formulate an overall picture before creating small advantages for the deducer using small teams at an appropriate time and location so as to reduce the problems caused by chance events on the overall war situation. Furthermore, the back-up plan it would calculate would usually be quite perfect. This set of deduction methods had only one sentence in the core of its philosophy — Seize the opportunity whenever one was stuck at a pivotal point.

Regardless of how many of the occurring events changed and transformed, as long as one grabbed the head of it, one would be able to take the initiative to obtain an advantage.

This philosophy implied that in order for one to fully make use of the science behind deciding on the next course of action when the war situation changed, one has to be flexible — one must not be dead set on a single, predetermined battle plan. Right now, the pivotal location lied at Cato Canyon.

Fatty was fully confident of his own deduction, but would the forward command team trust him? This operation was planned and directed by the Federation Supreme Headquarters. The forward command team situated at Jialipalan was merely carrying out these plans. So the biggest issue now was whether they would see the importance of this deduction, and whether they would believe the deduction made by a special scouts first lieutenant.

Several hours passed. The correspondence soldier, with a back covered in sweat, came down from the Albert-encrypted communication system before reporting to Tian Xing Jian that Rashid had no reply for him. Apparently, their point-to-point communication system had lost connection.

Tian Xing Jian felt that this world was truly inconceivable. The more afraid you were that something might happen and the more you wish for it to not happen, the more likely it would happen.

If he could not link-up with Rashid, then using the [Antenna] to directly communicate with the Federation would possibly expose their position. If their position was exposed, due to their lack of manoeuvrability, surviving behind the enemy lines with their Battle Mechas would truly be harder than even transcending the heavens.

“Keep trying. You must establish a connection regardless. Even if you can’t link up with them, you must still do it,” Tian Xing Jian gave a preposterous order.