Part 9 (1/2)

33. Daniel Yergin, The Prize, 1992.

33. Robert Sherrill, ”The Case Against the Oil Companies,” New York Times, October 14, 1979.

33. Author's interview with Peter Schwartz, November 2009.

34. James Akins, Foreign Affairs, April 1973.

34. Ron Alquist and Lutz Kilian, Center for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper DP6548.

35. Anthony Parisi, New York Times, September 1, 1977.

36. Quoted in Oona Strathern, A Short History of the Future, 2007.

38. Quoted in John c.o.x, Storm Watchers, 2002.

38. James Crutchfield, Doyne Farmer, Norman Packer, and Robert Shaw, ”Chaos,” Scientific American, December 1986.

41. William H. McNeill, ”Pa.s.sing Strange: The Convergence of Evolutionary Science with Scientific History,” History and Theory, February 2001.

42. Quoted in Justin Fox, The Myth of the Rational Market, 2009.

43. John Lewis Gaddis, ”International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War,” International Security, Winter 1992/93.

43. David Robson, ”Disorderly Genius: How Chaos Drives the Brain,” New Scientist, June 29, 2009.

44. Spyros Makridakis, Robin Hogarth, and Anil Gaba, Dance with Chance, 2009.

46. ”The Gipper or the Guard,” New York Times, November 3, 2009.

46. The cla.s.sic ill.u.s.tration of small things making huge differences is based on what is likely an apocryphal tale: Mark Antony, it is said, gazed for so long at a statue of Cleopatra, and in particular the statue's striking nose, that he was late to arrive at the battle that decided the fate of the Roman Empire. Thus, the philosopher Blaise Pascal reasoned, history turned on Cleopatra's nose. Stodgier historians like to cite ”Cleopatra's nose” as a way of belittling the notion that great events can be traced to trivial sources. Great events must have great causes, they insist. But if it is possible for a b.u.t.terfly's flap to cause a tornado, it is possible for a monkey's bite to cause a war, and the insistence that great events come from great sources is nothing more than a prejudice. The story of Cleopatra's magnificent proboscis may not be true, but Pascal had the right idea.

47. ”Projecting the Unknowable” in World Population to 2300, United Nations.

48. Robert Sencourt, ”Population and the Future,” The Atlantic Monthly, April 1925.

49. Richard Overy, The Twilight Years, 2009.

49. Michael S. Teitelbaum and Jay M. Winter, The Fear of Population Decline, 1985.

49. Overy, The Twilight Years.

49. ”The Future of Population” in What the Future Holds, 2002.

49. See America Alone by Mark Steyn for a particularly hysterical example.

50. ”Go Forth and Multiply a Lot Less,” The Economist, October 31, 2009.

50. Joel Cohen, ”The Future of Population” in What the Future Holds. Cohen notes that one researcher found the number was revised up eleven times and down six times, while two others counted thirteen changes up and four down. ”Evidently there is some uncertainty about the uncertainty,” he dryly concluded.

52. ”The Future of Population” in What the Future Holds.

52. Jack Davis, ”Why Bad Things Happen to Good a.n.a.lysts” in Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce, eds., a.n.a.lyzing Intelligence, 2008.

53. Charles Kurzman, The Unthinkable Revolution in Iran, 2005.

55. Clark C. Abt, ”The Future of Energy” in What the Future Holds, 2002.

55. Noel Grove, ”Oil, the Dwindling Treasure,” National Geographic, June 1974.

56. Energy: Global Prospects 1985-2000, Workshop on Alternative Energy Strategies, 1977.

56. Na.s.sim Taleb, The Black Swan, 2007.

56. ”Forbes Predicts Oil Will Drop to $35 Within a Year,” Daily Telegraph, August 31, 2005.

56. ”Oil's End,” New York Times, March 5, 2008.

57. David Olive, Toronto Star, July 27, 2009.