Part 9 (2/2)

57. ”Warning: Oil Supplies Are Running Out Fast,” The Independent, August 3, 2009.

57. COMPAS Inc., June 8, 2009.

CHAPTER 3.

Page 59. All biographical details from William H. McNeill, Arnold J. Toynbee: A Life, 1989.

59. Arnold J. Toynbee, ”What the Book Is For,” reprinted in Ashley Montagu, ed., Toynbee and History, 1956.

60. Quoted in Arnold J. Toynbee: A Life.

62. ”Testing the Toynbee System” in Toynbee and History.

62. ”Much Learning . . .” in Toynbee and History.

62. Quoted in ”Herr Spengler and Mr. Toynbee,” H. Mich.e.l.l, Toynbee and History.

64. Time, April 20, 1953.

64. ”The Napoleon of Notting Hill” in Toynbee and History.

65. ”The Menace of Overpopulation” in Fairfield Osborn, ed., Our Crowded Planet, 1962.

66. A very generous observer might argue that the global preeminence of the United States, particularly as it existed in 2002, is akin to a ”universal state.” I don't think that's reasonable. Toynbee's conception of a universal state is literal, and no matter how powerful the United States was, and is, it is not a literal empire-a fact amply demonstrated in 2002, when the U.S. government exerted all the pressure it could muster on foreign governments to support its invasion of Iraq. Most refused. Even Canada and Mexico balked. The United States may have been the world's sole superpower, but it was not its governor.

66. Time, November 17, 1952.

66. Arnold Toynbee, ”Is a World-Wide State Feasible?” in Change and Habit: The Challenge of Our Time, 1992.

66. Arnold Toynbee and Kei Wakaizumi, Surviving the Future, 1971.

69. Gary Marcus, Kluge: The Haphazard Construction of the Human Mind, 2008.

71. ”Want to Keep Your Wallet? Carry a Baby Picture,” The Times, July 11, 2009.

71. ”Inferential Correction” in Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman, eds., Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, 2002.

72. Paul Rozin and Carol Nemeroff, ”Sympathetic Magical Thinking” in Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment.

72. Researchers even found that the accuracy of people throwing darts at a dartboard significantly declines when the board has a photo of a baby pinned to it.

74. Laura A. King, Chad M. Burton, Joshua A. Hicks, and Stephen M. Drigotas, ”Ghosts, UFOs, and Magic: Positive Affect and the Experiential System,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, vol. 92, no. 5, 2007.

74. See, for example, ”Impressions of Baby-Faced Adults,” Leslie Z. McArthur and Karen Apatow, Social Cognition, 1983. Baby faces have even been found to have an influence on the outcome of small-claims cases: Leslie A. Zebrowitz and Susan M. McDonald, ”The Impact of Litigants' Baby-facedness and Attractiveness on Adjudications in Small Claims Court,” Law and Human Behavior, December 1991.

74. The original calculation can be read at , ”Lessons of a Non-war,” Le Monde diplomatique, March 1, 1998.

95. World Development Indicators, World Bank.

96. Marguerite Kramer and Bruce Russett, ”Images of World Futures,” Journal of Peace Research, 1984.

99. Deutsche Bank Research, ”Global Growth Centres 2020,” March 23, 2005.

104. Dan Gardner, Risk, 2008.

105. Ca.s.s R. Sunstein, Risk and Reason, 2002.

106. John S. Carroll, ”The Effect of Imagining an Event on Expectations for the Event: An Interpretation in Terms of the Availability Heuristic,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 1978.

107. ”Challenging the Crowd in Whispers, Not Shouts,” New York Times, November 1, 2008.

108. Robert S. Baron, Joseph A. Vandello, and Bethany Brunsman, ”The Forgotten Variable in Conformity Research: Impact of Task Importance on Social Influence,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1996.

110. Sam Cole, ”The Zeitgeist of Futures?” Futures, August 2008.

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