Part 10 (2/2)

150. Donald H. Naftulin, John E. Ware, and Frank A. Donnelly, ”The Dr. Fox Lecture: A Paradigm of Education Seduction,” Journal of Medical Education, July 1973.

150. M. Lefkowitz, R. R. Blake, and J. S. Mouton, ”Status Factors in Pedestrian Violations of Traffic Signals,” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 1955.

150. ”The Perceptual Distortion of Height as a Function of Ascribed Social Status,” Journal of Social Psychology, 1968.

151. Stanley Milgram, Obedience to Authority, 1974.

151. C. K. Holfling et al., ”An Experimental Study of Nurse-Physician Relations.h.i.+ps,” Journal of Nervous and Mental Diseases, 1966.

151. Robert Cialdini, Influence, 1984.

151. If the reader is wondering, yes, I am guilty of doing this myself. It's hard not to be impressed by the aura of a great university, or to make use of it.

153. Wendy M. Williams and Stephen J. Ceci, ”'How'm I Doing?' Problems with Student Ratings of Instructors and Courses,” Change Magazine, September/October 1997.

153. Harvey London, Philip J. Meldman, and A. Van C. Lanckton, ”The Jury Method: How the Persuader Persuades,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 1970.

153. P. Zarnoth and J. A. Sniezek, ”The Social Influence of Confidence in Group Decision Making,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 1997.

153. Brian L. Cutler, Steven D. Penrod, and Thomas E. Stuve, ”Juror Decision Making in Eyewitness Identification Cases,” Law and Human Behavior, 1988.

153. Paul C. Price and Eric R. Stone, ”Intuitive Evaluation of Likelihood Judgment Producers: Evidence for a Confidence Heuristic,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2004.

154. J. F. Yates, P. C. Price, J. Lee, and J. Ramirez, ”Good Probabilistic Forecasters: The 'Consumer's' Perspective,” International Journal of Forecasting, 1996.

154. Yates et al., ”Good Probabilistic Forecasters: The 'Consumer's' Perspective”; Price and Stone, ”Intuitive Evaluation of Likelihood Judgment Producers: Evidence for a Confidence Heuristic,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, January 2004.

155. ”My Media: Norman Lamont.” The columnist in question was Lord William Rees-Mogg.

156. Joseph R. Radzevick and Don A. Moore, ”Competing to Be Certain (But Wrong): Social Pressure and Overprecision in Judgment,” January 14, 2009, draft, in press.

158. Yates et al., ”Good Probabilistic Forecasters: The 'Consumer's' Perspective.”

163. Pierre Desrochers and Christine Hoffbauer, ”The Post War Intellectual Roots of the Population Bomb,” Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development, 2009.

164. ”Paul Ehrlich: Crusading Now to Change the Future,” St. Petersburg Times, March 7, 1970.

165. Stuart Blackman, ”Promises, Promises.” The Scientist, vol. 23, no. 11, 2009.

165. Robert Lempert, ”Can Scenarios Help Policymakers?” in Blindsided, 2007.

165. Blackman, ”Promises, Promises.”

166. ”A Guessing Game?” Online NewsHour, PBS, June 23, 1999.

166. Paul Wells, ”Wells's Rules, Annotated,” Inkless Wells (blog on /mags_y2k.html.

172. Weekly Standard, March 17, 2003.

172. Weekly Standard, March 17, 2003.

172. The Guardian, November 21, 2006.

175. Glen McGregor, ”Web Disaster Prophecy a High School Project,” Ottawa Citizen, September 14, 2001.

175. And it continues. Despite the indisputable origins of the verse, and the dedicated efforts of debunking Web sites, Marshall's words continue to be cited in cybers.p.a.ce as proof of Nostradamus's dazzling powers.

176. See /dixon.html.

177. ”Not with a Bang but a Gasp,” New York Times, December 15, 1969.

178. ”On the State of Man,” New York Times, November 4, 1975.

178. Robert Paarlberg, Starved for Science, 2008.

178. ”Ignore All the Iran Experts,” Foreign Policy, June 2009.

178. Davies, Flat Earth News.

178. ”The Coming Oil Crisis,” Newsweek, June 29, 2009.

179. ”Rubin, Oil Predictor, Sees $100 Crude in 2010,” BusinessWeek, January 7, 2010.

179. ”Economist Predicts $1.50 a Litre for Gasoline,” Toronto Star, January 11, 2008.

179. Two books that appeared in the same period were Dow 40,000 by David Elias and Dow 100,000 by Charles Kadlec.

183. Personal correspondence with the author.

184. ”Bertram R. Forer, ”The Fallacy of Personal Validation: A Cla.s.sroom Demonstration of Gullibility,” Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 1949.

185. John Durant, Predictions: Pictorial Predictions from the Past, 1956.

186. ”Not with a Bang but a Gasp.”

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